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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Leben won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1353

Elo1490

Chris LebenvsAaron SimpsonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale · Saturday, June 19, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Leben won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:17

Model Prediction: Chris Leben wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Chris Leben wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Leben at +280 American odds

+$280 profit

$380 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Leben enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Chris Leben is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Aaron Simpson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Aaron Simpson has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Leben (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Leben

Red Corner

Aaron Simpson

Blue Corner

+280

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-310

(76%)

1353

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris LebenL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Wanderlei Silva · Jul 11

KOvs Mark Munoz · Nov 11

vs Derek Brunson · Dec 12

vs Andrew Craig · Jul 13

KOvs Uriah Hall · Dec 13

latest

Aaron Simpson

oldest →

vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11

vs Eric Schafer · Oct 11

vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12

KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris LebenMetricAaron Simpson

2.87

Strikes / min

3.60

2.87

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

52%

Strike defense

56%

1.14

TDs / 15 min

3.78

53%

Takedown defense

83%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris LebenAaron Simpson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Leben(8 fights)Aaron Simpson(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -137.4|Blue +137.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris LebenTargetAaron Simpson

By target zone

42% acc · 74%

Head

47% acc · 65%

40% acc · 5%

Body

69% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

34% acc · 50%

Distance

38% acc · 44%

65% acc · 40%

Clinch

91% acc · 47%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

67% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Leben rounds

even

Aaron Simpson rounds

Round 1Aaron Simpson edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:40

26Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:44Control

Round 2Chris Leben edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:05

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 92

Sig Strikes

43 / 78

46%

Sig Str %

54.5%

66 / 118

Total Strikes

56 / 94

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 10

—

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

3:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aaron Simpson	26 / 40	36 / 53	2 / 5	1
1	Chris Leben	12 / 25	33 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Aaron Simpson	17 / 38	20 / 41	0 / 5	0
2	Chris Leben	30 / 67	33 / 71	0 / 0	0

Chris Leben

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Aaron Simpson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8