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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Kelades won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1357

Chris KeladesvsChris BealUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Chris Kelades won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Beal wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Chris Kelades wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Beal at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Beal has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chris Beal has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Kelades

Red Corner

Chris Beal

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1490

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris KeladesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Paddy Holohan · Oct 14

SUBvs Ray Borg · Feb 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Apr 16

latest

Chris BealL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Williams · Apr 14

vs Tateki Matsuda · Sep 14

vs Neil Seery · Jan 15

SUBvs Joe Soto · Jun 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris KeladesMetricChris Beal

2.40

Strikes / min

3.45

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

3.18

48%

Strike defense

61%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

1.60

53%

Takedown defense

78%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.24evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris KeladesChris Beal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Kelades(4 fights)Chris Beal(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.3|Blue -133.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris KeladesTargetChris Beal

By target zone

38% acc · 66%

Head

40% acc · 89%

74% acc · 28%

Body

71% acc · 11%

75% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

43% acc · 78%

Distance

31% acc · 53%

56% acc · 10%

Clinch

62% acc · 17%

60% acc · 12%

Ground

70% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Kelades rounds

even

Chris Beal rounds

Round 1Chris Beal edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:23

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:50Control

Round 2Chris Kelades edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:10

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Chris Kelades edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control0:06

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 109

Sig Strikes

47 / 113

53.3%

Sig Str %

44.7%

90 / 165

Total Strikes

83 / 149

1 / 9

TDs

2 / 4

33.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

5:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Beal	16 / 27	36 / 47	1 / 1
1	Chris Kelades	8 / 11	27 / 41	0 / 2
2	Chris Beal	15 / 33	20 / 38	1 / 2
2	Chris Kelades	19 / 38	30 / 52	0 / 6
3	Chris Beal	16 / 53	27 / 64	0 / 1
3	Chris Kelades	23 / 60	33 / 72	1 / 1

Chris Kelades

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Chris Beal

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5