Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chris Gutierrez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1508

Elo1454

Chris GutierrezvsVince MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · Saturday, May 30, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Gutierrez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:27

Style matchupChris Gutierrez: Elusive strikervsVince Morales: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Chris Gutierrez wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Chris Gutierrez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Gutierrez at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Gutierrez

Red Corner

Vince Morales

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1508

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Gutierrez

oldest →

vs Alatengheili · Oct 23

vs Song Yadong · Dec 23

vs Quang Le · Aug 24

vs John Castaneda · Apr 25

vs Farid Basharat · Oct 25

latest

Vince MoralesL5 streak

oldest →

vs Miles Johns · Nov 22

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24

vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25

DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris GutierrezMetricVince Morales

4.40

Strikes / min

3.54

2.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

63%

Strike defense

54%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

0.71

67%

Takedown defense

63%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.75Δ 2.12 — meaningful gap-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris GutierrezVince Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Gutierrez(10 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.3|Blue -53.3

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris GutierrezTargetVince Morales

By target zone

47% acc · 33%

Head

19% acc · 50%

67% acc · 7%

Body

67% acc · 50%

80% acc · 60%

Leg

By position

62% acc · 93%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Gutierrez rounds

even

Vince Morales rounds

Round 1Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns2

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 94

Sig Strikes

8 / 27

63.5%

Sig Str %

29%

60 / 94

Total Strikes

8 / 27

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vince Morales	5 / 14	5 / 14	0 / 0
1	Chris Gutierrez	32 / 51	32 / 51	0 / 0
2	Vince Morales	3 / 13	3 / 13	0 / 0
2	Chris Gutierrez	28 / 43	28 / 43	0 / 0

Chris Gutierrez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11