Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chris Gutierrez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1508

Elo1495

Chris GutierrezvsJohn CastanedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Saturday, April 26, 2025Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Chris Gutierrez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Gutierrez: Elusive strikervsJohn Castaneda: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Chris Gutierrez wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Chris Gutierrez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Gutierrez at -148 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors John Castaneda (52.9%).
John Castaneda has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Gutierrez

Red Corner

John Castaneda

Blue Corner

-148

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+126

(44%)

1508

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Gutierrez

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Apr 23

vs Alatengheili · Oct 23

vs Song Yadong · Dec 23

vs Quang Le · Aug 24

vs Farid Basharat · Oct 25

latest

John Castaneda

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Santos · Oct 22

vs Muin Gafurov · Jun 23

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Nov 23

vs Daniel Marcos · Jun 24

DECvs Mark Vologdin · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris GutierrezMetricJohn Castaneda

4.40

Strikes / min

4.95

2.65

Strikes absorbed / min

5.07

63%

Strike defense

54%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

1.49

67%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.75Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris GutierrezJohn Castaneda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Gutierrez(10 fights)John Castaneda(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.7|Blue -12.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris GutierrezTargetJohn Castaneda

By target zone

40% acc · 43%

Head

47% acc · 39%

56% acc · 11%

Body

62% acc · 20%

81% acc · 46%

Leg

57% acc · 41%

By position

54% acc · 96%

Distance

51% acc · 88%

0% acc

Clinch

83% acc · 12%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Gutierrez rounds

even

John Castaneda rounds

Round 1Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:37

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:58Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3John Castaneda edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:02

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 85

Sig Strikes

41 / 77

52%

Sig Str %

52.7%

65 / 112

Total Strikes

76 / 118

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

4:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Castaneda	6 / 17	17 / 29	0 / 0
1	Chris Gutierrez	9 / 16	19 / 29	0 / 0
2	John Castaneda	23 / 43	23 / 43	0 / 0
2	Chris Gutierrez	29 / 50	29 / 50	0 / 1
3	John Castaneda	12 / 17	36 / 46	1 / 1
3	Chris Gutierrez	8 / 19	17 / 33	0 / 1

Chris Gutierrez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14

John Castaneda

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8