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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Chris Gutierrez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1508

Elo1425

Chris GutierrezvsFelipe ColaresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, October 9, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Gutierrez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Gutierrez wins(74.4%)

Actual result: Chris Gutierrez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Gutierrez at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Gutierrez has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chris Gutierrez has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Gutierrez

Red Corner

Felipe Colares

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1508

Elo

1425

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Gutierrez

oldest →

vs Alatengheili · Oct 23

vs Song Yadong · Dec 23

vs Quang Le · Aug 24

vs John Castaneda · Apr 25

vs Farid Basharat · Oct 25

latest

Felipe Colares

oldest →

vs Geraldo de Freitas · Feb 19

vs Domingo Pilarte · Jul 19

vs Montel Jackson · Jan 20

vs Luke Sanders · May 21

KOvs Chase Hooper · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris GutierrezMetricFelipe Colares

4.40

Strikes / min

2.17

2.65

Strikes absorbed / min

4.65

63%

Strike defense

36%

0.30

TDs / 15 min

1.88

67%

Takedown defense

43%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.75Δ 4.23 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris GutierrezFelipe Colares

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Gutierrez(10 fights)Felipe Colares(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +82.1|Blue -82.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris GutierrezTargetFelipe Colares

By target zone

56% acc · 59%

Head

21% acc · 56%

93% acc · 15%

Body

48% acc · 37%

89% acc · 26%

Leg

60% acc · 7%

By position

67% acc · 97%

Distance

28% acc · 100%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Gutierrez rounds

even

Felipe Colares rounds

Round 1Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:18

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:04

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Chris Gutierrez edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:08

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

96 / 144

Sig Strikes

41 / 147

66.7%

Sig Str %

27%

115 / 165

Total Strikes

70 / 178

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 7

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

3:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Felipe Colares	11 / 42	21 / 52	0 / 2
1	Chris Gutierrez	17 / 27	19 / 29	0 / 2
2	Felipe Colares	20 / 69	20 / 69	0 / 2
2	Chris Gutierrez	39 / 68	41 / 70	0 / 0
3	Felipe Colares	10 / 36	29 / 57	1 / 3
3	Chris Gutierrez	40 / 49	55 / 66	0 / 1

Chris Gutierrez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14

Felipe Colares

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6