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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Gruetzemacher won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1533

Chris GruetzemachervsRafa GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland · Saturday, July 31, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Gruetzemacher won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Gruetzemacher: Pressure fightervsRafa Garcia: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Chris Gruetzemacher wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Chris Gruetzemacher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Gruetzemacher at +270 American odds

+$270 profit

$370 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafa Garcia enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Gruetzemacher

Red Corner

Rafa Garcia

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-350

(78%)

1494

Elo

1533

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris GruetzemacherL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chas Skelly · Feb 17

SUBvs Davi Ramos · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Lauzon · Apr 18

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 20

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Dec 21

latest

Rafa GarciaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Clay Guida · Apr 23

KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24

vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25

DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris GruetzemacherMetricRafa Garcia

6.18

Strikes / min

4.28

4.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.42

52%

Strike defense

61%

0.21

TDs / 15 min

3.22

65%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris GruetzemacherRafa Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Gruetzemacher(7 fights)Rafa Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.8|Blue +38.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris GruetzemacherTargetRafa Garcia

By target zone

41% acc · 60%

Head

45% acc · 81%

97% acc · 31%

Body

88% acc · 10%

82% acc · 9%

Leg

78% acc · 10%

By position

47% acc · 76%

Distance

47% acc · 81%

89% acc · 24%

Clinch

65% acc · 15%

Ground

60% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Gruetzemacher rounds

even

Rafa Garcia rounds

Round 1Rafa Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:01

38Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 2Chris Gruetzemacher edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:02

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:53Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:06Control

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 190

Sig Strikes

72 / 146

52%

Sig Str %

46.7%

176 / 268

Total Strikes

90 / 166

0 / 1

TDs

5 / 12

TD %

45.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

6:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafa Garcia	38 / 67	38 / 68	2 / 4	0
1	Chris Gruetzemacher	42 / 75	57 / 90	0 / 1	0
2	Rafa Garcia	20 / 43	25 / 49	1 / 5	1
2	Chris Gruetzemacher	32 / 63	46 / 77	0 / 0	0
3	Rafa Garcia	14 / 36	27 / 49	2 / 3	0
3	Chris Gruetzemacher	26 / 52	73 / 101	0 / 0	0

Chris Gruetzemacher

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11