Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Hernandez won · KO/TKO

Elo1494

Elo1523

Chris GruetzemachervsAlexander HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · Saturday, October 31, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Hernandez won

KO/TKO

Style matchupChris Gruetzemacher: Pressure fightervsAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at -435 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Hernandez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Gruetzemacher

Red Corner

Alexander Hernandez

Blue Corner

+315

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-435

(81%)

1494

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Gruetzemacher

oldest →

SUBvs Chas Skelly · Feb 17

SUBvs Davi Ramos · Dec 17

KOvs Joe Lauzon · Apr 18

vs Rafa Garcia · Jul 21

SUBvs Claudio Puelles · Dec 21

latest

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris GruetzemacherMetricAlexander Hernandez

6.18

Strikes / min

4.23

4.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

52%

Strike defense

59%

0.21

TDs / 15 min

1.05

65%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22Δ 1.44 — meaningful gap-0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris GruetzemacherAlexander Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Gruetzemacher(7 fights)Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.3|Blue +29.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +767.0|Blue -767.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris GruetzemacherTargetAlexander Hernandez

By target zone

20% acc · 50%

Head

47% acc · 55%

0% acc

Body

44% acc · 14%

80% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 31%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

55% acc · 97%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Gruetzemacher rounds

even

Alexander Hernandez rounds

Round 1Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 27

Sig Strikes

29 / 52

29%

Sig Str %

55%

8 / 27

Total Strikes

29 / 52

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Hernandez	29 / 52	29 / 52	0 / 0	0
1	Chris Gruetzemacher	8 / 27	8 / 27	0 / 0	0

Chris Gruetzemacher

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18