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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jonathan Wilson won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1356
Elo1362
Jonathan Wilson

Chris DempseyvsJonathan WilsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 8, 2015Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Wilson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:50

Model Prediction: Chris Dempsey wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Jonathan Wilson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Dempsey at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jonathan Wilson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jonathan Wilson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Chris Dempsey has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Jonathan Wilson has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Wilson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Dempsey
Red Corner
VS
Jonathan Wilson
Blue Corner
+105
(49%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1356
Elo
1362
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Dempsey
oldest →
L
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Jul 14
W
vs Eddie Gordon · Apr 15
L
KOvs Scott Askham · Feb 16
latest
Jonathan WilsonL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Henrique da Silva · Jun 16
L
vs Ion Cutelaba · Oct 16
L
vs Oskar Piechota · Oct 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris DempseyMetricJonathan Wilson
2.25
Strikes / min
2.92
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
5.65
65%
Strike defense
56%
2.64
TDs / 15 min
0.37
16%
Takedown defense
80%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.57Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-2.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1503 vs 1500Strikes22.5 vs —Takedowns1.5 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.3 vs 0.0
Chris DempseyJonathan Wilson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Chris Dempsey(4 fights)Jonathan Wilson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.9|Blue +5.9
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris DempseyTargetJonathan Wilson

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
4
50% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
2
33% acc · 50%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Chris Dempsey rounds
0
even
1
Jonathan Wilson rounds
Round 1Jonathan Wilson edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
0 / 4
Sig Strikes
4 / 8
0%
Sig Str %
50%
1 / 5
Total Strikes
4 / 8
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jonathan Wilson4 / 84 / 80 / 00
1Chris Dempsey0 / 41 / 50 / 10

Chris Dempsey

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4

Jonathan Wilson

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights4