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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Juan Adams won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1381

Chris de la RochavsJuan AdamsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, December 15, 2018Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Juan Adams won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:58

Style matchupChris de la Rocha: WrestlervsJuan Adams: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Chris de la Rocha wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Juan Adams wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris de la Rocha at +375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Juan Adams enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris de la Rocha is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Juan Adams has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Juan Adams is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Chris de la Rocha has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Juan Adams has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chris de la Rocha

Red Corner

Juan Adams

Blue Corner

+375

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-470

(82%)

1491

Elo

1381

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

203.2 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris de la Rocha

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Omielanczuk · Jul 15

KOvs Adam Milstead · May 16

KOvs Rashad Coulter · Jun 18

latest

Juan AdamsL3 streak

oldest →

vs Arjan Bhullar · May 19

KOvs Greg Hardy · Jul 19

KOvs Justin Tafa · Feb 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris de la RochaMetricJuan Adams

4.08

Strikes / min

7.09

6.37

Strikes absorbed / min

4.06

43%

Strike defense

34%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

0.91

33%

Takedown defense

57%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.29Δ 5.32 — meaningful gap+3.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris de la RochaJuan Adams

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris de la Rocha(4 fights)Juan Adams(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +110.8|Blue -110.8

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris de la RochaTargetJuan Adams

By target zone

47% acc · 73%

Head

56% acc · 86%

91% acc · 24%

Body

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

80% acc · 5%

By position

54% acc · 88%

Distance

45% acc · 44%

43% acc · 7%

Clinch

87% acc · 15%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

80% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris de la Rocha rounds

even

Juan Adams rounds

Round 1Juan Adams edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:09

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:57Control

Round 2Juan Adams edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:50

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 3Juan Adams edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 76

Sig Strikes

86 / 144

58%

Sig Str %

65%

46 / 81

Total Strikes

121 / 180

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 2

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:59

Ctrl Time

4:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Juan Adams	36 / 65	52 / 82	1 / 1
1	Chris de la Rocha	16 / 23	18 / 25	0 / 0
2	Juan Adams	35 / 61	54 / 80	1 / 1
2	Chris de la Rocha	22 / 48	25 / 51	1 / 2
3	Juan Adams	15 / 18	15 / 18	0 / 0
3	Chris de la Rocha	3 / 5	3 / 5	0 / 0

Chris de la Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights4

Juan Adams

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights4