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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Adam Milstead won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1369

Chris de la RochavsAdam MilsteadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · Sunday, May 29, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Adam Milstead won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:01

Style matchupChris de la Rocha: WrestlervsAdam Milstead: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Chris de la Rocha wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Adam Milstead wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris de la Rocha at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris de la Rocha is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Adam Milstead has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Adam Milstead is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Chris de la Rocha has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Adam Milstead has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Chris de la Rocha has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris de la Rocha

Red Corner

Adam Milstead

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1491

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris de la Rocha

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Omielanczuk · Jul 15

KOvs Rashad Coulter · Jun 18

KOvs Juan Adams · Dec 18

latest

Adam MilsteadL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Johnson · Mar 18

KOvs Mike Rodriguez · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris de la RochaMetricAdam Milstead

4.08

Strikes / min

3.85

6.37

Strikes absorbed / min

4.79

43%

Strike defense

43%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

0.00

33%

Takedown defense

64%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.29Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris de la RochaAdam Milstead

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris de la Rocha(4 fights)Adam Milstead(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.0|Blue -122.0

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris de la RochaTargetAdam Milstead

By target zone

30% acc · 64%

Head

49% acc · 90%

82% acc · 23%

Body

63% acc · 9%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

36% acc · 85%

Distance

47% acc · 81%

86% acc · 15%

Clinch

64% acc · 16%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris de la Rocha rounds

even

Adam Milstead rounds

Round 1Adam Milstead edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:58

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Adam Milstead edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 98

Sig Strikes

58 / 116

39.5%

Sig Str %

49.5%

43 / 102

Total Strikes

61 / 119

0 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:58

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Adam Milstead	32 / 60	35 / 63	0 / 0
1	Chris de la Rocha	24 / 62	27 / 65	0 / 5
2	Adam Milstead	26 / 56	26 / 56	0 / 0
2	Chris de la Rocha	15 / 36	16 / 37	0 / 2

Chris de la Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights4

Adam Milstead

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3