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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Daukaus won · KO/TKO

Elo1471

Elo1500

Chris DaukausvsRodrigo NascimentoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, October 10, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Chris Daukaus won

KO/TKO

Style matchupChris Daukaus: Pressure fightervsRodrigo Nascimento: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Rodrigo Nascimento wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Chris Daukaus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rodrigo Nascimento at -265 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Daukaus enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Chris Daukaus is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rodrigo Nascimento has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Chris Daukaus has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chris Daukaus has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Rodrigo Nascimento has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Daukaus

Red Corner

Rodrigo Nascimento

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1471

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris DaukausL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shamil Abdurakhimov · Sep 21

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Dec 21

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 22

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 22

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Aug 23

latest

Rodrigo NascimentoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tanner Boser · Sep 22

vs Ilir Latifi · May 23

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · May 24

vs Alexandr Romanov · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris DaukausMetricRodrigo Nascimento

6.05

Strikes / min

3.71

4.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

55%

Strike defense

44%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.02

100%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.41Δ 2.04 — meaningful gap-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris DaukausRodrigo Nascimento

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Daukaus(8 fights)Rodrigo Nascimento(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.4|Blue +29.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris DaukausTargetRodrigo Nascimento

By target zone

62% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

55% acc · 46%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

70% acc · 54%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Daukaus rounds

even

Rodrigo Nascimento rounds

Round 1Chris Daukaus edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns2

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 21

Sig Strikes

1 / 4

61%

Sig Str %

25%

13 / 21

Total Strikes

1 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rodrigo Nascimento	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Chris Daukaus	13 / 21	13 / 21	0 / 0	0

Chris Daukaus

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8

Rodrigo Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8