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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Roman Kopylov won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1492

Elo1520

Chris CurtisvsRoman KopylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Roman Kopylov won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:59

Style matchupChris Curtis: Pressure fightervsRoman Kopylov: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Roman Kopylov wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Roman Kopylov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roman Kopylov at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roman Kopylov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Roman Kopylov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Curtis

Red Corner

Roman Kopylov

Blue Corner

+198

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1492

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Curtis

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 23

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jan 24

vs Brendan Allen · Apr 24

vs Max Griffin · Jul 25

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Mar 26

latest

Roman Kopylov

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 24

vs Cesar Almeida · Jun 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jul 25

vs Gregory Rodrigues · Nov 25

DECvs Marco Tulio · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CurtisMetricRoman Kopylov

5.52

Strikes / min

4.54

5.75

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

54%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.12

64%

Takedown defense

88%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CurtisRoman Kopylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Curtis(10 fights)Roman Kopylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.1|Blue +28.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CurtisTargetRoman Kopylov

By target zone

107

52% acc · 75%

Head

34% acc · 70%

58% acc · 21%

Body

88% acc · 11%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

142

54% acc · 100%

Distance

124

41% acc · 95%

Clinch

80% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Curtis rounds

even

Roman Kopylov rounds

Round 1Roman Kopylov edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes58

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Roman Kopylov edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

44Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:49Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

142 / 261

Sig Strikes

130 / 307

53.7%

Sig Str %

41.7%

146 / 265

Total Strikes

133 / 310

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roman Kopylov	48 / 110	48 / 110	0 / 2
1	Chris Curtis	42 / 83	42 / 83	0 / 0
2	Roman Kopylov	38 / 96	38 / 96	0 / 0
2	Chris Curtis	58 / 104	59 / 105	0 / 0
3	Roman Kopylov	44 / 101	47 / 104	1 / 4
3	Chris Curtis	42 / 74	45 / 77	0 / 0

Chris Curtis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Roman Kopylov

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12