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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Myktybek Orolbai won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1549

Chris CurtisvsMyktybek OrolbaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Myktybek Orolbai won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Curtis: Pressure fightervsMyktybek Orolbai: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Myktybek Orolbai wins(88.9%)

Actual result: Myktybek Orolbai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Myktybek Orolbai at -480 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Curtis has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Curtis

Red Corner

Myktybek Orolbai

Blue Corner

+370

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-480

(83%)

1492

Elo

1549

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Curtis

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 23

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jan 24

vs Brendan Allen · Apr 24

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 25

vs Max Griffin · Jul 25

latest

Myktybek OrolbaiW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Uros Medic · Nov 23

vs Elves Brener · May 24

vs Mateusz Rebecki · Oct 24

SUBvs Tofiq Musayev · Jun 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CurtisMetricMyktybek Orolbai

5.52

Strikes / min

2.78

5.75

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

54%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

8.77

64%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CurtisMyktybek Orolbai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Curtis(10 fights)Myktybek Orolbai(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.1|Blue +57.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CurtisTargetMyktybek Orolbai

By target zone

24% acc · 50%

Head

72% acc · 65%

100% acc · 50%

Body

75% acc · 15%

Leg

67% acc · 20%

By position

32% acc · 75%

Distance

50% acc · 25%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

82% acc · 70%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Curtis rounds

even

Myktybek Orolbai rounds

Round 1Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

7Takedowns

4:02Control

Round 2Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:06

2Sig. strikes

7Takedowns

4:13Control

Round 3Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

4:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 31

Sig Strikes

20 / 28

38.7%

Sig Str %

64%

57 / 81

Total Strikes

83 / 102

0 / 0

TDs

19 / 24

—

TD %

78.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

12:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Myktybek Orolbai	16 / 21	49 / 65	7 / 8
1	Chris Curtis	2 / 10	12 / 20	0 / 0
2	Myktybek Orolbai	2 / 3	25 / 26	7 / 9
2	Chris Curtis	6 / 13	20 / 28	0 / 0
3	Myktybek Orolbai	2 / 4	9 / 11	5 / 7
3	Chris Curtis	4 / 8	25 / 33	0 / 0

Chris Curtis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Myktybek Orolbai

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6