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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Curtis won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1478

Chris CurtisvsMarc-Andre BarriaultUFC Prediction Result

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · Saturday, January 20, 2024Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Chris Curtis won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Curtis: Pressure fightervsMarc-Andre Barriault: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Chris Curtis wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Chris Curtis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Curtis at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Chris Curtis

Red Corner

Marc-Andre Barriault

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1492

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Curtis

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 23

vs Brendan Allen · Apr 24

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 25

vs Max Griffin · Jul 25

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Mar 26

latest

Marc-Andre BarriaultL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Jun 24

KOvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Nov 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · May 25

vs Shara Magomedov · Jul 25

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CurtisMetricMarc-Andre Barriault

5.52

Strikes / min

5.65

5.75

Strikes absorbed / min

5.94

54%

Strike defense

49%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.34

64%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CurtisMarc-Andre Barriault

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Curtis(10 fights)Marc-Andre Barriault(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.1|Blue -14.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CurtisTargetMarc-Andre Barriault

By target zone

101

48% acc · 72%

Head

41% acc · 63%

80% acc · 25%

Body

79% acc · 27%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

116

50% acc · 83%

Distance

105

48% acc · 86%

86% acc · 17%

Clinch

68% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Curtis rounds

even

Marc-Andre Barriault rounds

Round 1Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:00

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes66

Takedowns0

Control0:00

59Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

140 / 258

Sig Strikes

122 / 243

52.3%

Sig Str %

47.7%

144 / 262

Total Strikes

124 / 245

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marc-Andre Barriault	18 / 46	18 / 46	0 / 0
1	Chris Curtis	23 / 48	23 / 48	0 / 0
2	Marc-Andre Barriault	45 / 85	45 / 85	0 / 0
2	Chris Curtis	51 / 99	51 / 99	0 / 0
3	Marc-Andre Barriault	59 / 112	61 / 114	0 / 0
3	Chris Curtis	66 / 111	70 / 115	0 / 0

Chris Curtis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Marc-Andre Barriault

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17