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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1492

Chris CurtisvsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2023Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Curtis: Pressure fightervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Chris Curtis wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Curtis at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Chris Curtis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Curtis

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1492

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Curtis

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jan 24

vs Brendan Allen · Apr 24

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 25

vs Max Griffin · Jul 25

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Mar 26

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CurtisMetricKelvin Gastelum

5.52

Strikes / min

3.65

5.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

54%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.04

64%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CurtisKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Curtis(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -476.0|Blue +476.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CurtisTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

27% acc · 63%

Head

39% acc · 76%

70% acc · 30%

Body

63% acc · 6%

71% acc · 7%

Leg

79% acc · 18%

By position

33% acc · 90%

Distance

44% acc · 92%

88% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

Ground

40% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Curtis rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 3Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:01

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 201

Sig Strikes

83 / 188

33%

Sig Str %

43.7%

80 / 216

Total Strikes

88 / 195

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kelvin Gastelum	30 / 64	30 / 64	0 / 0
1	Chris Curtis	13 / 48	13 / 48	0 / 0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	23 / 56	27 / 62	0 / 1
2	Chris Curtis	20 / 65	26 / 74	0 / 0
3	Kelvin Gastelum	30 / 68	31 / 69	0 / 2
3	Chris Curtis	37 / 88	41 / 94	0 / 0

Chris Curtis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24