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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Curtis won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1516

Chris CurtisvsJoaquin BuckleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, December 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Curtis won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:49

Style matchupChris Curtis: Pressure fightervsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Chris Curtis wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Chris Curtis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Curtis at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Curtis is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Joaquin Buckley has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Joaquin Buckley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Curtis

Red Corner

Joaquin Buckley

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1492

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Curtis

oldest →

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jan 24

vs Brendan Allen · Apr 24

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Jan 25

vs Max Griffin · Jul 25

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Mar 26

latest

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CurtisMetricJoaquin Buckley

5.52

Strikes / min

3.62

5.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

54%

Strike defense

58%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.43

64%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CurtisJoaquin Buckley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Curtis(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.1|Blue +24.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CurtisTargetJoaquin Buckley

By target zone

35% acc · 69%

Head

20% acc · 54%

60% acc · 8%

Body

75% acc · 30%

80% acc · 22%

Leg

89% acc · 16%

By position

37% acc · 81%

Distance

30% acc · 96%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

75% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Curtis rounds

even

Joaquin Buckley rounds

Round 1Joaquin Buckley edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Curtis edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 87

Sig Strikes

50 / 163

41%

Sig Str %

30%

36 / 87

Total Strikes

50 / 163

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joaquin Buckley	29 / 91	29 / 91	0 / 0
1	Chris Curtis	19 / 49	19 / 49	0 / 0
2	Joaquin Buckley	21 / 72	21 / 72	0 / 0
2	Chris Curtis	17 / 38	17 / 38	0 / 0

Chris Curtis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17