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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Che Mills won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1351
Chris Cope
Elo1490
Che Mills

Chris CopevsChe MillsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · Saturday, November 5, 2011Birmingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Che Mills won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:40

Model Prediction: Chris Cope wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Che Mills wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Cope at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Che Mills is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Chris Cope has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Chris Cope has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Che Mills has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Cope
Red Corner
VS
Che Mills
Blue Corner
+235
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-255
(72%)
1351
Elo
1490
43
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Cope
oldest →
W
vs Chuck O'Neil · Jun 11
L
KOvs Matt Brown · Feb 12
latest
Che Mills
oldest →
L
KOvs Rory MacDonald · Apr 12
W
KOvs Duane Ludwig · Sep 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CopeMetricChe Mills
3.96
Strikes / min
2.08
4.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
50%
Strike defense
43%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.18
80%
Takedown defense
58%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.86evenly matched on net striking-0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes66.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Chris CopeChe Mills

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Chris Cope(3 fights)Che Mills(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.9|Blue +138.9
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CopeTargetChe Mills

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
9
64% acc · 82%
0
Body
0
1
33% acc · 100%
Leg
2
100% acc · 18%

By position

1
10% acc · 100%
Distance
6
86% acc · 55%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 18%
0
Ground
3
43% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Chris Cope rounds
0
even
1
Che Mills rounds
Round 1Che Mills edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
1 / 10
Sig Strikes
11 / 16
10%
Sig Str %
68%
1 / 10
Total Strikes
11 / 16
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Che Mills11 / 1611 / 160 / 00
1Chris Cope1 / 101 / 100 / 10

Chris Cope

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3

Che Mills

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3