← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1482

Chris ClementsvsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · Saturday, September 21, 2013Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:27

Model Prediction: Chris Clements wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Clements at +380 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stephen Thompson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Chris Clements has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Stephen Thompson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stephen Thompson has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stephen Thompson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Clements

Red Corner

Stephen Thompson

Blue Corner

+380

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-430

(81%)

1490

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris Clements

oldest →

vs Keith Wisniewski · Apr 12

KOvs Vik Grujic · Nov 14

vs Nordine Taleb · Apr 15

latest

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris ClementsMetricStephen Thompson

3.20

Strikes / min

4.05

2.37

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

44%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.23

32%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.83evenly matched on net striking+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris ClementsStephen Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Clements(4 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.9|Blue -7.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +399.0|Blue -399.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris ClementsTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

0% acc

Head

50% acc · 61%

60% acc · 35%

Body

71% acc · 22%

92% acc · 65%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

37% acc · 76%

Distance

61% acc · 87%

57% acc · 24%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

0% acc

Ground

40% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Clements rounds

even

Stephen Thompson rounds

Round 1Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:12

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 43

Sig Strikes

23 / 39

29%

Sig Str %

61%

25 / 51

Total Strikes

36 / 53

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

2:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Stephen Thompson	11 / 23	21 / 34	2 / 2
1	Chris Clements	16 / 34	19 / 37	0 / 0
2	Stephen Thompson	12 / 16	15 / 19	0 / 0
2	Chris Clements	1 / 9	6 / 14	0 / 0

Chris Clements

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21