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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Chris Cariaso won · S-DEC R3
Elo1355
Chris Cariaso
Elo1355
Vaughan Lee

Chris CariasovsVaughan LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz · Saturday, November 5, 2011Birmingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Chris Cariaso won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Cariaso: Well-roundedvsVaughan Lee: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Chris Cariaso wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Cariaso at -205 American odds

+$49 profit

$149 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Vaughan Lee has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Cariaso
Red Corner
VS
Vaughan Lee
Blue Corner
-205
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+188
(35%)
1355
Elo
1355
45
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'6"
162.56 cm
Reach
167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CariasoL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14
W
vs Louis Smolka · May 14
L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14
L
vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15
L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15
latest
Vaughan LeeL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Motonobu Tezuka · Feb 13
L
SUBvs Raphael Assuncao · Jun 13
W
vs Nam Phan · Mar 14
L
KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 14
L
vs Paddy Holohan · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CariasoMetricVaughan Lee
3.35
Strikes / min
3.47
2.23
Strikes absorbed / min
2.07
61%
Strike defense
70%
1.11
TDs / 15 min
0.81
57%
Takedown defense
72%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.12evenly matched on net striking+1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1500Strikes55.5 vs —Takedowns0.5 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-0.2 vs 0.0
Chris CariasoVaughan Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Vaughan Lee(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -47.8|Blue +47.8
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CariasoTargetVaughan Lee

By target zone

35
51% acc · 67%
Head
10
30% acc · 34%
14
88% acc · 27%
Body
9
75% acc · 31%
3
60% acc · 6%
Leg
10
91% acc · 34%

By position

21
49% acc · 40%
Distance
11
35% acc · 38%
17
74% acc · 33%
Clinch
15
79% acc · 52%
14
61% acc · 27%
Ground
3
50% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Chris Cariaso rounds
0
even
1
Vaughan Lee rounds
Round 1Vaughan Lee edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:37
13Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
3:27Control
Round 2Chris Cariaso edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control3:06
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:49Control
Round 3Chris Cariaso edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control2:38
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
52 / 89
Sig Strikes
29 / 56
58.7%
Sig Str %
50%
79 / 116
Total Strikes
101 / 128
2 / 3
TDs
4 / 9
66.7%
TD %
53.3%
1
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
6:21
Ctrl Time
5:36

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Vaughan Lee13 / 2431 / 423 / 52
1Chris Cariaso15 / 2018 / 230 / 10
2Vaughan Lee5 / 1448 / 571 / 10
2Chris Cariaso10 / 2416 / 301 / 10
3Vaughan Lee11 / 1822 / 290 / 30
3Chris Cariaso27 / 4545 / 631 / 11

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights13

Vaughan Lee

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights8