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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Pettis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1492

Chris CariasovsSergio PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · Saturday, October 3, 2015Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Sergio Pettis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Cariaso: Well-roundedvsSergio Pettis: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Sergio Pettis wins(61.5%)

Actual result: Sergio Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Pettis at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Sergio Pettis has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Cariaso

Red Corner

Sergio Pettis

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1355

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CariasoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Iliarde Santos · Oct 13

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

latest

Sergio Pettis

oldest →

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 17

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jun 18

vs Jussier Formiga · Oct 18

vs Rob Font · Dec 18

vs Tyson Nam · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CariasoMetricSergio Pettis

3.35

Strikes / min

3.88

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

61%

Strike defense

65%

1.11

TDs / 15 min

0.85

57%

Takedown defense

67%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CariasoSergio Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Sergio Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.4|Blue +136.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CariasoTargetSergio Pettis

By target zone

23% acc · 30%

Head

28% acc · 86%

79% acc · 41%

Body

60% acc · 8%

92% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

45% acc · 81%

Distance

20% acc · 41%

80% acc · 11%

Clinch

0% acc

43% acc · 8%

Ground

48% acc · 59%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Cariaso rounds

even

Sergio Pettis rounds

Round 1Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:30Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Sergio Pettis edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:48Control

Round 3Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control4:11

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 79

Sig Strikes

37 / 122

42.7%

Sig Str %

31.7%

54 / 104

Total Strikes

80 / 169

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

4:11

Ctrl Time

5:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sergio Pettis	24 / 77	42 / 98	1 / 2	0
1	Chris Cariaso	22 / 37	25 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Sergio Pettis	10 / 37	31 / 59	2 / 2	0
2	Chris Cariaso	12 / 33	14 / 37	0 / 1	0
3	Sergio Pettis	3 / 8	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
3	Chris Cariaso	3 / 9	15 / 27	0 / 0	1

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13

Sergio Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14