← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Cariaso won · S-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1425

Chris CariasovsLouis SmolkaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Chris Cariaso won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Cariaso: Well-roundedvsLouis Smolka: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Louis Smolka at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Cariaso has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Louis Smolka has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Cariaso

Red Corner

Louis Smolka

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1355

Elo

1425

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'9"

162.56 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CariasoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Iliarde Santos · Oct 13

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CariasoMetricLouis Smolka

3.35

Strikes / min

4.67

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

61%

Strike defense

53%

1.11

TDs / 15 min

1.69

57%

Takedown defense

32%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12evenly matched on net striking+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CariasoLouis Smolka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -69.4|Blue +69.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -17.0|Blue +17.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CariasoTargetLouis Smolka

By target zone

34% acc · 36%

Head

29% acc · 48%

61% acc · 34%

Body

76% acc · 31%

95% acc · 30%

Leg

90% acc · 21%

By position

47% acc · 63%

Distance

30% acc · 43%

68% acc · 36%

Clinch

64% acc · 43%

25% acc · 2%

Ground

67% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Cariaso rounds

even

Louis Smolka rounds

Round 1Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:09

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:20Control

Round 2Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:36

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 3Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control0:24

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 124

Sig Strikes

42 / 97

51%

Sig Str %

42.3%

86 / 149

Total Strikes

79 / 135

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 10

100%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

7:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Louis Smolka	11 / 30	27 / 46	0 / 3	0
1	Chris Cariaso	23 / 39	30 / 46	0 / 0	2
2	Louis Smolka	9 / 20	21 / 33	1 / 3	0
2	Chris Cariaso	13 / 28	27 / 45	1 / 1	2
3	Louis Smolka	22 / 47	31 / 56	0 / 4	0
3	Chris Cariaso	28 / 57	29 / 58	1 / 1	0

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17