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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Cariaso won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1352

Chris CariasovsJosh FergusonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman · Wednesday, July 11, 2012San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Chris Cariaso won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Cariaso wins(82.6%)

Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Cariaso at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Cariaso has 29pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Cariaso

Red Corner

Josh Ferguson

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1355

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CariasoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

Josh Ferguson

oldest →

SUBvs Roland Delorme · Dec 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CariasoMetricJosh Ferguson

3.35

Strikes / min

2.13

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

4.18

61%

Strike defense

32%

1.11

TDs / 15 min

0.59

57%

Takedown defense

54%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 3.17 — meaningful gap-2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CariasoJosh Ferguson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Josh Ferguson(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.9|Blue -3.9

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CariasoTargetJosh Ferguson

By target zone

59% acc · 69%

Head

21% acc · 60%

100% acc · 26%

Body

88% acc · 35%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

52% acc · 49%

Distance

26% acc · 75%

87% acc · 29%

Clinch

71% acc · 25%

100% acc · 23%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Cariaso rounds

even

Josh Ferguson rounds

Round 1Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control1:08

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 2Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control0:44

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 3Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:27

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 104

Sig Strikes

20 / 65

65%

Sig Str %

38.7%

114 / 150

Total Strikes

33 / 79

3 / 6

TDs

1 / 8

50%

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:19

Ctrl Time

3:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Josh Ferguson	7 / 17	9 / 20	1 / 4
1	Chris Cariaso	26 / 32	36 / 43	1 / 2
2	Josh Ferguson	8 / 39	14 / 45	0 / 2
2	Chris Cariaso	36 / 56	50 / 70	1 / 2
3	Josh Ferguson	5 / 9	10 / 14	0 / 2
3	Chris Cariaso	8 / 16	28 / 37	1 / 2

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13

Josh Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach—

Fights2