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Flyweight

3 Rounds

John Moraga won · SUB R3

Elo1355

Elo1491

Chris CariasovsJohn MoragaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · Saturday, December 29, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Moraga won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:11

Model Prediction: Chris Cariaso wins(65.8%)

Actual result: John Moraga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Cariaso at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Cariaso

Red Corner

John Moraga

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1355

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CariasoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

John Moraga

oldest →

vs Sergio Pettis · Jan 17

vs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Jun 17

KOvs Magomed Bibulatov · Oct 17

vs Wilson Reis · Apr 18

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CariasoMetricJohn Moraga

3.35

Strikes / min

2.57

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

61%

Strike defense

56%

1.11

TDs / 15 min

0.62

57%

Takedown defense

44%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CariasoJohn Moraga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Cariaso(10 fights)John Moraga(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.7|Blue +135.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +24.0|Blue -24.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CariasoTargetJohn Moraga

By target zone

20% acc · 49%

Head

29% acc · 58%

53% acc · 26%

Body

44% acc · 31%

100% acc · 26%

Leg

75% acc · 12%

By position

31% acc · 87%

Distance

32% acc · 81%

42% acc · 13%

Clinch

56% acc · 19%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Cariaso rounds

even

John Moraga rounds

Round 1Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:02

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:24

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:10

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 122

Sig Strikes

26 / 74

30.3%

Sig Str %

35%

41 / 124

Total Strikes

31 / 79

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 2

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Moraga	11 / 31	11 / 31	1 / 1	0
1	Chris Cariaso	19 / 52	19 / 52	0 / 0	0
2	John Moraga	11 / 32	16 / 37	1 / 1	0
2	Chris Cariaso	17 / 59	19 / 61	1 / 1	0
3	John Moraga	4 / 11	4 / 11	0 / 0	1
3	Chris Cariaso	3 / 11	3 / 11	0 / 1	0

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13

John Moraga

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14