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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Henry Cejudo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1472

Chris CariasovsHenry CejudoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · Saturday, March 14, 2015Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Henry Cejudo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Cariaso: Well-roundedvsHenry Cejudo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Henry Cejudo wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Henry Cejudo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Henry Cejudo at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Henry Cejudo has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Cariaso

Red Corner

Henry Cejudo

Blue Corner

+600

(14%)

Vegas Odds

-750

(88%)

1355

Elo

1472

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CariasoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Iliarde Santos · Oct 13

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

Henry CejudoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CariasoMetricHenry Cejudo

3.35

Strikes / min

3.83

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

61%

Strike defense

57%

1.11

TDs / 15 min

1.78

57%

Takedown defense

72%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CariasoHenry Cejudo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Henry Cejudo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -116.6|Blue +116.6

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CariasoTargetHenry Cejudo

By target zone

22% acc · 50%

Head

45% acc · 56%

59% acc · 45%

Body

72% acc · 42%

25% acc · 5%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

28% acc · 77%

Distance

37% acc · 38%

45% acc · 23%

Clinch

71% acc · 24%

Ground

79% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Cariaso rounds

even

Henry Cejudo rounds

Round 1Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:07

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:18Control

Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:21

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:49Control

Round 3Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:15

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 71

Sig Strikes

50 / 93

32%

Sig Str %

54.7%

41 / 92

Total Strikes

111 / 162

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 7

—

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

9:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Henry Cejudo	18 / 28	48 / 59	2 / 2	0
1	Chris Cariaso	8 / 19	20 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Henry Cejudo	13 / 35	24 / 51	2 / 3	0
2	Chris Cariaso	7 / 29	12 / 34	0 / 0	0
3	Henry Cejudo	19 / 30	39 / 52	2 / 2	1
3	Chris Cariaso	7 / 23	9 / 25	0 / 0	0

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16