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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Cariaso won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1490

Chris CariasovsDanny MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Chris Cariaso won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Cariaso: Well-roundedvsDanny Martinez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Chris Cariaso wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Cariaso at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Cariaso has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Cariaso

Red Corner

Danny Martinez

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1355

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CariasoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Iliarde Santos · Oct 13

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

Danny Martinez

oldest →

vs Scott Jorgensen · Jun 14

vs Sirwan Kakai · Jun 15

vs Richie Vaculik · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CariasoMetricDanny Martinez

3.35

Strikes / min

2.73

2.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

61%

Strike defense

63%

1.11

TDs / 15 min

3.00

57%

Takedown defense

36%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.12Δ 2.16 — meaningful gap-1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CariasoDanny Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Cariaso(10 fights)Danny Martinez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.0|Blue +135.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.0|Blue +47.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CariasoTargetDanny Martinez

By target zone

30% acc · 70%

Head

21% acc · 55%

64% acc · 25%

Body

57% acc · 39%

80% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

33% acc · 78%

Distance

30% acc · 82%

50% acc · 14%

Clinch

32% acc · 18%

75% acc · 8%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Cariaso rounds

even

Danny Martinez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:09Control

Round 2Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:42Control

Round 3Chris Cariaso edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 203

Sig Strikes

33 / 110

35.7%

Sig Str %

28.7%

85 / 216

Total Strikes

33 / 110

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 14

—

TD %

35%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Danny Martinez	4 / 25	4 / 25	2 / 5
1	Chris Cariaso	15 / 41	17 / 43	0 / 0
2	Danny Martinez	14 / 35	14 / 35	2 / 5
2	Chris Cariaso	29 / 71	34 / 77	0 / 0
3	Danny Martinez	15 / 50	15 / 50	1 / 4
3	Chris Cariaso	29 / 91	34 / 96	0 / 0

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13

Danny Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4