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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Camozzi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1360

Elo1355

Chris CamozzivsTom WatsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 8, 2015Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Chris Camozzi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Camozzi: Elusive strikervsTom Watson: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Tom Watson wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Chris Camozzi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Watson at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Camozzi

Red Corner

Tom Watson

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1360

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CamozziL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16

vs Vitor Miranda · May 16

SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16

vs Trevor Smith · May 17

latest

Tom Watson

oldest →

KOvs Stanislav Nedkov · Feb 13

vs Thales Leites · Aug 13

vs Nick Catone · Feb 14

vs Sam Alvey · Aug 14

vs Rafael Natal · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CamozziMetricTom Watson

3.57

Strikes / min

4.01

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.41

56%

Strike defense

50%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

0.15

57%

Takedown defense

43%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CamozziTom Watson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Camozzi(10 fights)Tom Watson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.3|Blue -5.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CamozziTargetTom Watson

By target zone

56% acc · 75%

Head

39% acc · 38%

70% acc · 16%

Body

78% acc · 35%

89% acc · 9%

Leg

92% acc · 27%

By position

57% acc · 79%

Distance

55% acc · 71%

72% acc · 21%

Clinch

69% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Camozzi rounds

even

Tom Watson rounds

Round 1Chris Camozzi edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:40

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Tom Watson edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:48

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 3Chris Camozzi edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control1:56

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 146

Sig Strikes

82 / 140

59.3%

Sig Str %

57.3%

112 / 174

Total Strikes

104 / 164

3 / 4

TDs

1 / 8

66.7%

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:24

Ctrl Time

1:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Watson	18 / 40	27 / 50	0 / 2	0
1	Chris Camozzi	30 / 45	39 / 54	1 / 1	1
2	Tom Watson	33 / 52	40 / 60	1 / 4	0
2	Chris Camozzi	32 / 56	36 / 60	0 / 1	1
3	Tom Watson	31 / 48	37 / 54	0 / 2	0
3	Chris Camozzi	25 / 45	37 / 60	2 / 2	0

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Tom Watson

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7