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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Lorenz Larkin won · U-DEC R3

Elo1360

Elo1491

Chris CamozzivsLorenz LarkinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · Wednesday, November 6, 2013Fort Campbell, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Lorenz Larkin won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Camozzi: Elusive strikervsLorenz Larkin: Elusive striker

Two technical strikers — likely goes the distance with a close decision.

Model Prediction: Chris Camozzi wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Lorenz Larkin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Camozzi at +375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Lorenz Larkin has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Camozzi

Red Corner

Lorenz Larkin

Blue Corner

+375

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-420

(81%)

1360

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CamozziL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16

vs Vitor Miranda · May 16

SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16

vs Trevor Smith · May 17

latest

Lorenz LarkinW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Howard · Jan 15

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15

vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16

vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CamozziMetricLorenz Larkin

3.57

Strikes / min

3.53

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.74

56%

Strike defense

63%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

0.27

57%

Takedown defense

79%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CamozziLorenz Larkin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Camozzi(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.1|Blue +130.1

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CamozziTargetLorenz Larkin

By target zone

24% acc · 31%

Head

25% acc · 43%

61% acc · 17%

Body

38% acc · 17%

70% acc · 52%

Leg

90% acc · 39%

By position

41% acc · 91%

Distance

28% acc · 63%

86% acc · 9%

Clinch

89% acc · 35%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Camozzi rounds

even

Lorenz Larkin rounds

Round 1Chris Camozzi edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Chris Camozzi edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:29

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:19

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 147

Sig Strikes

46 / 121

42.7%

Sig Str %

37.7%

81 / 164

Total Strikes

62 / 137

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:48

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lorenz Larkin	15 / 41	18 / 44	0 / 0
1	Chris Camozzi	21 / 52	21 / 52	0 / 0
2	Lorenz Larkin	14 / 42	16 / 44	0 / 0
2	Chris Camozzi	28 / 59	37 / 68	0 / 0
3	Lorenz Larkin	17 / 38	28 / 49	0 / 0
3	Chris Camozzi	15 / 36	23 / 44	0 / 0

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Lorenz Larkin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10