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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kyle Noke won · SUB R1
Elo1360
Chris Camozzi
Elo1359
Kyle Noke

Chris CamozzivsKyle NokeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · Saturday, February 26, 2011Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Kyle Noke won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:35

Style matchupChris Camozzi: Elusive strikervsKyle Noke: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Chris Camozzi wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Kyle Noke wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Camozzi at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Kyle Noke enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Noke (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chris Camozzi
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Noke
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
1360
Elo
1359
39
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CamozziL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16
W
vs Vitor Miranda · May 16
L
SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16
L
vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16
L
vs Trevor Smith · May 17
latest
Kyle NokeL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jonavin Webb · May 15
W
KOvs Peter Sobotta · Nov 15
L
vs Alex Morono · Jan 16
L
SUBvs Keita Nakamura · Jul 16
L
vs Omari Akhmedov · Nov 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CamozziMetricKyle Noke
3.57
Strikes / min
3.23
2.96
Strikes absorbed / min
2.09
56%
Strike defense
64%
0.27
TDs / 15 min
1.53
57%
Takedown defense
66%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.61evenly matched on net striking+1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1537Strikes68.0 vs 37.5Takedowns0.0 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Chris CamozziKyle Noke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Chris Camozzi(10 fights)Kyle Noke(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CamozziTargetKyle Noke

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
2
25% acc · 50%
2
100% acc · 50%
Body
1
100% acc · 25%
2
100% acc · 50%
Leg
1
100% acc · 25%

By position

4
57% acc · 100%
Distance
3
33% acc · 75%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Chris Camozzi rounds
1
even
0
Kyle Noke rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:39
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 7
Sig Strikes
4 / 10
57%
Sig Str %
40%
4 / 7
Total Strikes
4 / 10
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 1
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:39
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kyle Noke4 / 104 / 101 / 11
1Chris Camozzi4 / 74 / 70 / 10

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights19

Kyle Noke

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12