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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Francis Carmont won · U-DEC R3

Elo1360

Elo1353

Chris CamozzivsFrancis CarmontUFC Prediction Result

UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · Saturday, October 29, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Francis Carmont won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Camozzi wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Francis Carmont wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Camozzi at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francis Carmont enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francis Carmont has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Camozzi

Red Corner

Francis Carmont

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1360

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CamozziL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16

vs Vitor Miranda · May 16

SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16

vs Trevor Smith · May 17

latest

Francis CarmontL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13

DECvs Costas Philippou · Sep 13

vs Jacare Souza · Feb 14

vs CB Dollaway · May 14

KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CamozziMetricFrancis Carmont

3.57

Strikes / min

2.22

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

1.64

56%

Strike defense

59%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

1.79

57%

Takedown defense

73%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CamozziFrancis Carmont

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Camozzi(10 fights)Francis Carmont(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.2|Blue +47.2

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CamozziTargetFrancis Carmont

By target zone

33% acc · 41%

Head

56% acc · 45%

80% acc · 18%

Body

80% acc · 39%

60% acc · 41%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

37% acc · 59%

Distance

48% acc · 31%

75% acc · 41%

Clinch

92% acc · 45%

Ground

75% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Camozzi rounds

even

Francis Carmont rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:31

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 2Francis Carmont edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control1:50

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:15Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Francis Carmont edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:38

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 47

Sig Strikes

51 / 74

42.7%

Sig Str %

70%

56 / 85

Total Strikes

82 / 107

0 / 5

TDs

3 / 6

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:59

Ctrl Time

4:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francis Carmont	10 / 13	17 / 22	1 / 2	0
1	Chris Camozzi	9 / 16	19 / 26	0 / 3	0
2	Francis Carmont	20 / 28	37 / 45	1 / 2	0
2	Chris Camozzi	2 / 10	17 / 27	0 / 1	0
3	Francis Carmont	21 / 33	28 / 40	1 / 2	0
3	Chris Camozzi	11 / 21	20 / 32	0 / 1	1

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Francis Carmont

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights9