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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Chris Camozzi won · SUB R3

Elo1360

Elo1515

Chris CamozzivsDustin JacobyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · Saturday, January 28, 2012Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Chris Camozzi won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:08

Style matchupChris Camozzi: Elusive strikervsDustin Jacoby: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Chris Camozzi wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Chris Camozzi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Camozzi at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Camozzi enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Camozzi

Red Corner

Dustin Jacoby

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1360

Elo

1515

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris CamozziL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Riggs · Feb 16

vs Vitor Miranda · May 16

SUBvs Thales Leites · Aug 16

vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 16

vs Trevor Smith · May 17

latest

Dustin Jacoby

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Jun 24

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Dec 24

KOvs Bruno Lopes · May 25

KOvs Julius Walker · Feb 26

KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris CamozziMetricDustin Jacoby

3.57

Strikes / min

5.40

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

3.92

56%

Strike defense

57%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

0.32

57%

Takedown defense

62%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris CamozziDustin Jacoby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Camozzi(10 fights)Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -154.6|Blue +154.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris CamozziTargetDustin Jacoby

By target zone

23% acc · 55%

Head

16% acc · 53%

50% acc · 9%

Body

44% acc · 23%

94% acc · 36%

Leg

70% acc · 23%

By position

34% acc · 95%

Distance

23% acc · 97%

40% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Camozzi rounds

even

Dustin Jacoby rounds

Round 1Chris Camozzi edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Camozzi edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:06

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 128

Sig Strikes

30 / 126

32.3%

Sig Str %

24.3%

44 / 128

Total Strikes

31 / 127

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Jacoby	16 / 63	16 / 63	0 / 0	0
1	Chris Camozzi	22 / 58	22 / 58	0 / 1	0
2	Dustin Jacoby	10 / 49	11 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	Chris Camozzi	18 / 56	18 / 56	0 / 0	0
3	Dustin Jacoby	4 / 14	4 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	Chris Camozzi	4 / 14	4 / 14	0 / 0	2

Chris Camozzi

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19