← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Chris Beal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1354

Chris BealvsTateki MatsudaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · Friday, September 5, 2014Ledyard, Connecticut, USA

Official fight result

Chris Beal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChris Beal: Well-roundedvsTateki Matsuda: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Chris Beal wins(71.2%)

Actual result: Chris Beal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Beal at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Beal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Beal has 62pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Chris Beal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Beal

Red Corner

Tateki Matsuda

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1357

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris BealL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Williams · Apr 14

vs Neil Seery · Jan 15

vs Chris Kelades · Aug 15

SUBvs Joe Soto · Jun 16

latest

Tateki Matsuda

oldest →

vs Joby Sanchez · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris BealMetricTateki Matsuda

3.45

Strikes / min

3.20

3.18

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

61%

Strike defense

69%

1.60

TDs / 15 min

0.00

78%

Takedown defense

16%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris BealTateki Matsuda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Beal(5 fights)Tateki Matsuda(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris BealTargetTateki Matsuda

By target zone

34% acc · 89%

Head

26% acc · 46%

80% acc · 9%

Body

50% acc · 10%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

62% acc · 44%

By position

19% acc · 33%

Distance

35% acc · 90%

64% acc · 16%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

66% acc · 51%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Beal rounds

even

Tateki Matsuda rounds

Round 1Tateki Matsuda edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:50

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 2Chris Beal edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:05

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Chris Beal edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control3:30

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 123

Sig Strikes

41 / 111

37.7%

Sig Str %

37.7%

66 / 144

Total Strikes

70 / 142

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:25

Ctrl Time

1:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tateki Matsuda	17 / 40	33 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Chris Beal	10 / 29	10 / 29	1 / 2	1
2	Tateki Matsuda	16 / 51	16 / 51	0 / 1	0
2	Chris Beal	22 / 66	28 / 72	0 / 0	0
3	Tateki Matsuda	8 / 20	21 / 33	0 / 0	0
3	Chris Beal	13 / 28	28 / 43	2 / 2	0

Chris Beal

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Tateki Matsuda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2