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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Joe Soto won · SUB R3

Elo1357

Elo1364

Chris BealvsJoe SotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Joe Soto won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:39

Style matchupChris Beal: Well-roundedvsJoe Soto: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Joe Soto wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Joe Soto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Soto at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Beal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Joe Soto has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Joe Soto threatens submissions; Chris Beal has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Chris Beal has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Beal

Red Corner

Joe Soto

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1357

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris BealL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Williams · Apr 14

vs Tateki Matsuda · Sep 14

vs Neil Seery · Jan 15

vs Chris Kelades · Aug 15

latest

Joe SotoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Michinori Tanaka · Jan 16

SUBvs Marco Beltran · Nov 16

vs Rani Yahya · Mar 17

SUBvs Brett Johns · Dec 17

KOvs Iuri Alcantara · Feb 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris BealMetricJoe Soto

3.45

Strikes / min

3.36

3.18

Strikes absorbed / min

5.37

61%

Strike defense

67%

1.60

TDs / 15 min

0.85

78%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap-2.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris BealJoe Soto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Beal(5 fights)Joe Soto(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.6|Blue +6.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +132.0|Blue -132.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris BealTargetJoe Soto

By target zone

35% acc · 89%

Head

31% acc · 79%

67% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 6%

Leg

50% acc · 15%

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

32% acc · 89%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Beal rounds

even

Joe Soto rounds

Round 1Chris Beal edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:02

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chris Beal edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:09

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 3Chris Beal edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 209

Sig Strikes

47 / 136

36%

Sig Str %

33.3%

78 / 211

Total Strikes

63 / 153

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 7

—

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Soto	11 / 41	11 / 41	0 / 3	0
1	Chris Beal	22 / 67	22 / 67	0 / 0	0
2	Joe Soto	23 / 56	36 / 70	0 / 1	1
2	Chris Beal	29 / 78	30 / 79	0 / 0	0
3	Joe Soto	13 / 39	16 / 42	1 / 3	1
3	Chris Beal	25 / 64	26 / 65	0 / 0	0

Chris Beal

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Joe Soto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8