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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Martin Buday won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1527

Chris BarnettvsMartin BudayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · Saturday, April 16, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Martin Buday won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 1:38

Style matchupChris Barnett: StrikervsMartin Buday: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Martin Buday wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Martin Buday wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Martin Buday at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Buday enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Martin Buday has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Martin Buday has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chris Barnett

Red Corner

Martin Buday

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-305

(75%)

1483

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chris BarnettL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · May 21

KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 21

KOvs Jake Collier · Sep 22

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Oct 24

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Oct 25

latest

Martin BudayW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Josh Parisian · Aug 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Dec 23

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 24

vs Uran Satybaldiev · Apr 25

vs Marcus Buchecha · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chris BarnettMetricMartin Buday

3.36

Strikes / min

4.39

6.55

Strikes absorbed / min

4.49

36%

Strike defense

55%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.15

35%

Takedown defense

93%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.19Δ 3.09 — meaningful gap-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chris BarnettMartin Buday

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chris Barnett(6 fights)Martin Buday(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.7|Blue +43.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chris BarnettTargetMartin Buday

By target zone

32% acc · 52%

Head

54% acc · 54%

75% acc · 26%

Body

96% acc · 45%

83% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

37% acc · 70%

Distance

52% acc · 41%

78% acc · 30%

Clinch

91% acc · 52%

Ground

57% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chris Barnett rounds

even

Martin Buday rounds

Round 1Martin Buday edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:15Control

Round 2Martin Buday edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:17

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:08Control

Round 3Martin Buday edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 52

Sig Strikes

56 / 83

59.3%

Sig Str %

67%

44 / 73

Total Strikes

131 / 172

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

7:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Martin Buday	20 / 29	45 / 58	0 / 0
1	Chris Barnett	9 / 24	17 / 32	0 / 0
2	Martin Buday	25 / 38	66 / 83	0 / 0
2	Chris Barnett	10 / 24	20 / 34	0 / 0
3	Martin Buday	11 / 16	20 / 31	0 / 0
3	Chris Barnett	4 / 4	7 / 7	0 / 0

Chris Barnett

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Martin Buday

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8