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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Carlos Leal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1511

Chidi NjokuanivsCarlos LealUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Carlos Leal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChidi Njokuani: StrikervsCarlos Leal: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Carlos Leal wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Carlos Leal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Leal at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chidi Njokuani is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Carlos Leal has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Carlos Leal has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Chidi Njokuani has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chidi Njokuani

Red Corner

Carlos Leal

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-142

(59%)

1490

Elo

1511

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'11"

203.2 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chidi Njokuani

oldest →

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 23

vs Rhys McKee · Mar 24

vs Jared Gooden · Oct 24

KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Mar 25

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Jul 25

latest

Carlos Leal

oldest →

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Oct 24

KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 25

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chidi NjokuaniMetricCarlos Leal

5.16

Strikes / min

8.75

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

7.78

57%

Strike defense

48%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.43

75%

Takedown defense

90%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.84evenly matched on net striking+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chidi NjokuaniCarlos Leal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chidi Njokuani(10 fights)Carlos Leal(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.1|Blue +21.1

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chidi NjokuaniTargetCarlos Leal

By target zone

41% acc · 38%

Head

31% acc · 62%

68% acc · 33%

Body

83% acc · 25%

95% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

105

56% acc · 88%

Distance

112

41% acc · 97%

88% acc · 12%

Clinch

60% acc · 3%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chidi Njokuani rounds

even

Carlos Leal rounds

Round 1Carlos Leal edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:00

60Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chidi Njokuani edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:04

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:17Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:02

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Fight Stats

Totals

120 / 205

Sig Strikes

115 / 276

59.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

124 / 210

Total Strikes

126 / 287

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 5

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

2:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Leal	60 / 131	60 / 131	0 / 0
1	Chidi Njokuani	46 / 70	46 / 70	0 / 0
2	Carlos Leal	5 / 20	16 / 31	0 / 4
2	Chidi Njokuani	22 / 35	26 / 40	0 / 1
3	Carlos Leal	50 / 125	50 / 125	0 / 1
3	Chidi Njokuani	52 / 100	52 / 100	0 / 1

Chidi Njokuani

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights10

Carlos Leal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4