← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Kimura won · SUB R3

Elo1355

Elo1354

Chico CamusvsDustin KimuraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · Saturday, February 2, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Kimura won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:50

Style matchupChico Camus: Well-roundedvsDustin Kimura: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Chico Camus wins(75.9%)

Actual result: Dustin Kimura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chico Camus at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chico Camus has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chico Camus has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Dustin Kimura has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chico Camus

Red Corner

Dustin Kimura

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1355

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chico CamusL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Aug 13

vs Chris Holdsworth · May 14

vs Brad Pickett · Nov 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Jun 15

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Sep 15

latest

Dustin KimuraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mitch Gagnon · Sep 13

SUBvs Jon Delos Reyes · Jan 14

vs George Roop · Apr 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chico CamusMetricDustin Kimura

2.58

Strikes / min

1.33

2.46

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

64%

Strike defense

51%

0.77

TDs / 15 min

0.93

72%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.12Δ 2.61 — meaningful gap-2.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chico CamusDustin Kimura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chico Camus(7 fights)Dustin Kimura(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chico CamusTargetDustin Kimura

By target zone

43% acc · 52%

Head

26% acc · 81%

80% acc · 17%

Body

75% acc · 19%

88% acc · 30%

Leg

0% acc

By position

48% acc · 65%

Distance

20% acc · 56%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

67% acc · 13%

71% acc · 22%

Ground

56% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chico Camus rounds

even

Dustin Kimura rounds

Round 1Chico Camus edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control3:35

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Chico Camus edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:04

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:40

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 41

Sig Strikes

16 / 56

50.3%

Sig Str %

32.3%

34 / 55

Total Strikes

26 / 67

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:19

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Kimura	5 / 10	8 / 13	0 / 0	1
1	Chico Camus	7 / 12	17 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Kimura	8 / 33	14 / 39	0 / 0	3
2	Chico Camus	14 / 23	15 / 24	1 / 1	0
3	Dustin Kimura	3 / 13	4 / 15	0 / 0	1
3	Chico Camus	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 2	0

Chico Camus

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7

Dustin Kimura

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5