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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Che Mills won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Che Mills
Elo1352
Duane Ludwig

Che MillsvsDuane LudwigUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · Saturday, September 29, 2012Nottingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Che Mills won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:28

Model Prediction: Che Mills wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Che Mills wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Che Mills at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Che Mills is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Duane Ludwig has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Duane Ludwig has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Che Mills has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Che Mills
Red Corner
VS
Duane Ludwig
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1490
Elo
1352
43
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Che Mills
oldest →
W
KOvs Chris Cope · Nov 11
L
KOvs Rory MacDonald · Apr 12
latest
Duane LudwigL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 10
W
vs Nick Osipczak · Nov 10
W
vs Amir Sadollah · Aug 11
L
SUBvs Josh Neer · Jan 12
L
KOvs Dan Hardy · May 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Che MillsMetricDuane Ludwig
2.08
Strikes / min
4.62
2.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
43%
Strike defense
57%
1.18
TDs / 15 min
0.43
58%
Takedown defense
59%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.79Δ 2.36 — meaningful gap+1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1478Strikes8.5 vs 38.1Takedowns0.0 vs 0.1Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs -0.5
Che MillsDuane Ludwig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Che Mills(3 fights)Duane Ludwig(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.5|Blue -138.5
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Che MillsTargetDuane Ludwig

By target zone

6
55% acc · 75%
Head
2
20% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 25%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

1
50% acc · 13%
Distance
1
14% acc · 50%
2
67% acc · 25%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 50%
5
63% acc · 63%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Che Mills rounds
0
even
0
Duane Ludwig rounds
Round 1Che Mills edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control2:05
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 13
Sig Strikes
2 / 10
61%
Sig Str %
20%
16 / 25
Total Strikes
5 / 13
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Duane Ludwig2 / 105 / 130 / 00
1Che Mills8 / 1316 / 252 / 20

Che Mills

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3

Duane Ludwig

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6