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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Justin Ledet won · U-DEC R3

Elo1459

Elo1391

Chase ShermanvsJustin LedetUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Saturday, August 6, 2016Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Justin Ledet won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChase Sherman: Pressure fightervsJustin Ledet: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Chase Sherman wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Justin Ledet wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Sherman at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Ledet enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Chase Sherman is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Justin Ledet has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Chase Sherman has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chase Sherman

Red Corner

Justin Ledet

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1459

Elo

1391

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chase ShermanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22

KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

vs Karl Williams · May 23

latest

Justin LedetL4 streak

oldest →

DECvs Zu Anyanwu · Sep 17

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Jul 18

KOvs Johnny Walker · Feb 19

vs Aleksa Camur · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chase ShermanMetricJustin Ledet

6.04

Strikes / min

3.35

6.65

Strikes absorbed / min

4.82

52%

Strike defense

49%

0.09

TDs / 15 min

0.23

74%

Takedown defense

42%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61evenly matched on net striking-1.47

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chase Sherman(10 fights)Justin Ledet(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.0|Blue -68.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chase ShermanTargetJustin Ledet

By target zone

22% acc · 44%

Head

111

49% acc · 98%

50% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 2%

81% acc · 44%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 98%

Distance

110

49% acc · 97%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

75% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chase Sherman rounds

even

Justin Ledet rounds

Round 1Justin Ledet edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Justin Ledet edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Justin Ledet edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 166

Sig Strikes

113 / 230

34%

Sig Str %

49%

60 / 167

Total Strikes

114 / 231

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Ledet	45 / 99	46 / 100	0 / 0
1	Chase Sherman	30 / 78	31 / 79	0 / 0
2	Justin Ledet	39 / 71	39 / 71	0 / 0
2	Chase Sherman	19 / 54	19 / 54	0 / 0
3	Justin Ledet	29 / 60	29 / 60	0 / 0
3	Chase Sherman	10 / 34	10 / 34	0 / 0

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Justin Ledet

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7