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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Chase Sherman won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1459

Elo1422

Chase ShermanvsIke VillanuevaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · Wednesday, May 13, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Chase Sherman won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:49

Style matchupChase Sherman: Pressure fightervsIke Villanueva: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Chase Sherman wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Chase Sherman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Sherman at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ike Villanueva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chase Sherman is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Ike Villanueva has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Chase Sherman has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ike Villanueva has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Chase Sherman has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Chase Sherman

Red Corner

Ike Villanueva

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1459

Elo

1422

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chase ShermanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22

KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

vs Karl Williams · May 23

latest

Ike VillanuevaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jordan Wright · Aug 20

KOvs Vinicius Moreira · Jan 21

KOvs Marcin Prachnio · Jun 21

KOvs Nicolae Negumereanu · Oct 21

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chase ShermanMetricIke Villanueva

6.04

Strikes / min

3.66

6.65

Strikes absorbed / min

7.24

52%

Strike defense

36%

0.09

TDs / 15 min

0.60

74%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61Δ 2.97 — meaningful gap-3.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chase ShermanIke Villanueva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chase Sherman(10 fights)Ike Villanueva(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.7|Blue -36.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -46.8|Blue +46.8

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chase ShermanTargetIke Villanueva

By target zone

47% acc · 53%

Head

26% acc · 81%

87% acc · 25%

Body

75% acc · 19%

73% acc · 22%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 90%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chase Sherman rounds

even

Ike Villanueva rounds

Round 1Chase Sherman edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Chase Sherman edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 87

Sig Strikes

16 / 54

61%

Sig Str %

31%

51 / 87

Total Strikes

16 / 54

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ike Villanueva	14 / 48	14 / 48	0 / 0
1	Chase Sherman	39 / 69	39 / 69	0 / 0
2	Ike Villanueva	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 0
2	Chase Sherman	12 / 18	12 / 18	0 / 0

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Ike Villanueva

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6