← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Steve Garcia won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1525

Elo1534

Chase HoopervsSteve GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Saturday, October 29, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Steve Garcia won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:32

Style matchupChase Hooper: WrestlervsSteve Garcia: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Chase Hooper wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Steve Garcia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Hooper at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steve Garcia is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Chase Hooper has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Steve Garcia has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Steve Garcia has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chase Hooper

Red Corner

Steve Garcia

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1525

Elo

1534

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chase Hooper

oldest →

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 24

vs Jim Miller · Apr 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Aug 25

KOvs Lance Gibson Jr. · Mar 26

SUBvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 26

latest

Steve Garcia

oldest →

KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24

vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25

KOvs David Onama · Nov 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chase HooperMetricSteve Garcia

4.50

Strikes / min

5.39

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

2.12

39%

Strike defense

59%

2.43

TDs / 15 min

0.86

55%

Takedown defense

88%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.48Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap+3.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chase HooperSteve Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chase Hooper(10 fights)Steve Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.1|Blue +9.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chase HooperTargetSteve Garcia

By target zone

28% acc · 70%

Head

58% acc · 66%

50% acc · 20%

Body

88% acc · 24%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

65% acc · 90%

Clinch

Ground

75% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chase Hooper rounds

even

Steve Garcia rounds

Round 1Steve Garcia edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

3Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 30

Sig Strikes

29 / 44

33%

Sig Str %

65%

10 / 32

Total Strikes

31 / 46

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Steve Garcia	29 / 44	31 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Chase Hooper	10 / 30	10 / 32	0 / 1	0

Chase Hooper

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Steve Garcia

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10