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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Lance Gibson Jr. won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1525
Chase Hooper editorial illustration
Elo1512
Lance Gibson Jr.

Chase HoopervsLance Gibson Jr.UFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Lance Gibson Jr. won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:56

Model Prediction: Chase Hooper wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Lance Gibson Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Hooper at -280 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Lance Gibson Jr. is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Chase Hooper has lost 60% of fights by KO.
  • Lance Gibson Jr. has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Lance Gibson Jr. has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Lance Gibson Jr. (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Chase Hooper
Red Corner
VS
Lance Gibson Jr.
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1525
Elo
1512
26
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'1"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chase Hooper
oldest →
W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · May 24
W
SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 24
W
vs Jim Miller · Apr 25
L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Aug 25
W
SUBvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 26
latest
Lance Gibson Jr.
oldest →
L
vs King Green · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chase HooperMetricLance Gibson Jr.
4.50
Strikes / min
2.40
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
39%
Strike defense
56%
2.43
TDs / 15 min
1.67
55%
Takedown defense
75%
2.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.48Δ 3.32 — meaningful gap-1.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1562 vs 1485Strikes4.5 vs 2.4Takedowns2.4 vs 1.7Sub Atts2.10 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs -1.0
Chase HooperLance Gibson Jr.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Chase Hooper(10 fights)Lance Gibson Jr.(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +13.0|Blue -13.0
Recent Form
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +119.0|Blue -119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chase HooperTargetLance Gibson Jr.

By target zone

3
17% acc · 27%
Head
6
46% acc · 46%
5
63% acc · 45%
Body
2
67% acc · 15%
3
50% acc · 27%
Leg
5
83% acc · 38%

By position

11
35% acc · 100%
Distance
7
50% acc · 54%
0
0% acc
Clinch
6
75% acc · 46%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Chase Hooper rounds
0
even
1
Lance Gibson Jr. rounds
Round 1Lance Gibson Jr. edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:06
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
11 / 32
Sig Strikes
13 / 22
34%
Sig Str %
59%
13 / 34
Total Strikes
19 / 28
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:06
Ctrl Time
0:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lance Gibson Jr.13 / 2219 / 280 / 00
1Chase Hooper11 / 3213 / 340 / 20

Chase Hooper

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14

Lance Gibson Jr.

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2