← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chase Hooper won · SUB R1

Elo1525

Elo1506

Chase HoopervsJordan LeavittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chase Hooper won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:58

Style matchupChase Hooper: WrestlervsJordan Leavitt: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chase Hooper wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Chase Hooper wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Hooper at -195 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chase Hooper threatens submissions; Jordan Leavitt has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Jordan Leavitt has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chase Hooper has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chase Hooper

Red Corner

Jordan Leavitt

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1525

Elo

1506

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chase Hooper

oldest →

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 24

vs Jim Miller · Apr 25

KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Aug 25

KOvs Lance Gibson Jr. · Mar 26

SUBvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 26

latest

Jordan Leavitt

oldest →

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 22

KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25

vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chase HooperMetricJordan Leavitt

4.50

Strikes / min

2.21

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

1.59

39%

Strike defense

58%

2.43

TDs / 15 min

3.15

55%

Takedown defense

30%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.48evenly matched on net striking+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chase HooperJordan Leavitt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chase Hooper(10 fights)Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.9|Blue -18.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chase HooperTargetJordan Leavitt

By target zone

33% acc · 100%

Head

67% acc · 67%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 100%

Ground

67% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chase Hooper rounds

even

Jordan Leavitt rounds

Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:57

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 3

Sig Strikes

3 / 4

33%

Sig Str %

75%

13 / 18

Total Strikes

5 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jordan Leavitt	3 / 4	5 / 10	0 / 2	0
1	Chase Hooper	1 / 3	13 / 18	0 / 0	1

Chase Hooper

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Jordan Leavitt

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10