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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Hernandez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1525

Elo1523

Chase HoopervsAlexander HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Saturday, August 16, 2025Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Hernandez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:58

Style matchupChase Hooper: WrestlervsAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Chase Hooper wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Hooper at -375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Hernandez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Chase Hooper has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Alexander Hernandez has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Chase Hooper (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chase Hooper

Red Corner

Alexander Hernandez

Blue Corner

-375

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1525

Elo

1523

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chase Hooper

oldest →

SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · May 24

SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 24

vs Jim Miller · Apr 25

KOvs Lance Gibson Jr. · Mar 26

SUBvs Mitch Ramirez · Jul 26

latest

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24

vs Austin Hubbard · Oct 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chase HooperMetricAlexander Hernandez

4.50

Strikes / min

4.23

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

39%

Strike defense

59%

2.43

TDs / 15 min

1.05

55%

Takedown defense

68%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.48Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap-0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chase HooperAlexander Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chase Hooper(10 fights)Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chase HooperTargetAlexander Hernandez

By target zone

11% acc · 35%

Head

40% acc · 82%

58% acc · 35%

Body

100% acc · 18%

75% acc · 30%

Leg

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 76%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

80% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chase Hooper rounds

even

Alexander Hernandez rounds

Round 1Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 82

Sig Strikes

17 / 38

24%

Sig Str %

44%

20 / 82

Total Strikes

18 / 39

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Hernandez	17 / 38	18 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Chase Hooper	20 / 82	20 / 82	0 / 2	0

Chase Hooper

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18