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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chas Skelly won · SUB R1

Elo1495

Elo1358

Chas SkellyvsMaximo BlancoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · Saturday, September 17, 2016Hidalgo, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Chas Skelly won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:19

Style matchupChas Skelly: Submission grapplervsMaximo Blanco: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Chas Skelly wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Chas Skelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chas Skelly at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chas Skelly threatens submissions; Maximo Blanco has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Maximo Blanco has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Maximo Blanco has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chas Skelly

Red Corner

Maximo Blanco

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1495

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chas SkellyW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17

KOvs Jason Knight · May 17

vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18

vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19

KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22

latest

Maximo Blanco

oldest →

vs Felipe Arantes · Feb 14

vs Andy Ogle · May 14

vs Dan Hooker · Sep 14

KOvs Mike de la Torre · Jul 15

SUBvs Luke Sanders · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chas SkellyMetricMaximo Blanco

2.01

Strikes / min

4.11

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.19

49%

Strike defense

66%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

1.85

39%

Takedown defense

63%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20Δ 2.12 — meaningful gap+0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chas SkellyMaximo Blanco

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chas Skelly(10 fights)Maximo Blanco(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.2|Blue -137.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chas SkellyTargetMaximo Blanco

By target zone

Head

100% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

100% acc · 100%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chas Skelly rounds

even

Maximo Blanco rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:11

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 1

Sig Strikes

0 / 1

100%

Sig Str %

1 / 1

Total Strikes

0 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:11

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Maximo Blanco	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Chas Skelly	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Maximo Blanco

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9