Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chas Skelly won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1418

Chas SkellyvsMark StrieglUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Saturday, February 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chas Skelly won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:01

Model Prediction: Chas Skelly wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Chas Skelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chas Skelly at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Striegl has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mark Striegl (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chas Skelly

Red Corner

Mark Striegl

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1495

Elo

1418

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chas Skelly

oldest →

SUBvs Maximo Blanco · Sep 16

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17

KOvs Jason Knight · May 17

vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18

vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19

latest

Mark Striegl

oldest →

KOvs Said Nurmagomedov · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chas SkellyMetricMark Striegl

2.01

Strikes / min

1.40

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

49%

Strike defense

40%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

0.00

39%

Takedown defense

66%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-2.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chas SkellyMark Striegl

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chas Skelly(10 fights)Mark Striegl(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +77.1|Blue -77.1

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +399.0|Blue -399.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chas SkellyTargetMark Striegl

By target zone

44% acc · 86%

Head

36% acc · 50%

67% acc · 14%

Body

33% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 38%

By position

37% acc · 50%

Distance

50% acc · 88%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 29%

Ground

50% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chas Skelly rounds

even

Mark Striegl rounds

Round 1Chas Skelly edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:51

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 2Chas Skelly edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:52

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 30

Sig Strikes

8 / 17

43.5%

Sig Str %

48.5%

45 / 63

Total Strikes

34 / 44

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 2

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:43

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mark Striegl	4 / 7	29 / 33	0 / 2
1	Chas Skelly	3 / 8	34 / 41	1 / 2
2	Mark Striegl	4 / 10	5 / 11	0 / 0
2	Chas Skelly	11 / 22	11 / 22	0 / 1

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Mark Striegl

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2