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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chas Skelly won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1399

Chas SkellyvsJordan GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Saturday, September 14, 2019Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Chas Skelly won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupChas Skelly: Submission grapplervsJordan Griffin: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Chas Skelly wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Chas Skelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chas Skelly at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jordan Griffin (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Chas Skelly

Red Corner

Jordan Griffin

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1495

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chas Skelly

oldest →

SUBvs Maximo Blanco · Sep 16

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17

KOvs Jason Knight · May 17

vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18

KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22

latest

Jordan GriffinL2 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Dec 18

SUBvs TJ Brown · Feb 20

vs Youssef Zalal · Jun 20

vs Luis Saldana · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chas SkellyMetricJordan Griffin

2.01

Strikes / min

2.52

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

49%

Strike defense

50%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

1.45

39%

Takedown defense

42%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20evenly matched on net striking-0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chas SkellyJordan Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chas Skelly(10 fights)Jordan Griffin(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +96.6|Blue -96.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chas SkellyTargetJordan Griffin

By target zone

38% acc · 95%

Head

43% acc · 97%

14% acc · 5%

Body

33% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

34% acc · 95%

Distance

40% acc · 86%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

83% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chas Skelly rounds

even

Jordan Griffin rounds

Round 1Chas Skelly edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:49

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Jordan Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control2:06

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:43Control

Round 3Chas Skelly edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control3:40

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 59

Sig Strikes

37 / 87

35.3%

Sig Str %

40.7%

80 / 125

Total Strikes

66 / 122

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

8:35

Ctrl Time

2:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jordan Griffin	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Chas Skelly	7 / 19	24 / 37	1 / 1	2
2	Jordan Griffin	19 / 37	28 / 47	1 / 1	0
2	Chas Skelly	8 / 24	24 / 41	0 / 1	0
3	Jordan Griffin	8 / 23	28 / 48	0 / 0	2
3	Chas Skelly	6 / 16	32 / 47	0 / 1	1

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Jordan Griffin

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5