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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chas Skelly won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1357

Chas SkellyvsJim AlersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · Saturday, February 14, 2015Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Chas Skelly won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:59

Style matchupChas Skelly: Submission grapplervsJim Alers: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jim Alers wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Chas Skelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Alers at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jim Alers has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Chas Skelly

Red Corner

Jim Alers

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1495

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chas SkellyW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17

KOvs Jason Knight · May 17

vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18

vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19

KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22

latest

Jim Alers

oldest →

vs Alan Omer · Apr 14

vs Jason Knight · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chas SkellyMetricJim Alers

2.01

Strikes / min

2.90

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

4.38

49%

Strike defense

56%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

2.26

39%

Takedown defense

80%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20evenly matched on net striking-1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chas SkellyJim Alers

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chas Skelly(10 fights)Jim Alers(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.7|Blue -137.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chas SkellyTargetJim Alers

By target zone

58% acc · 79%

Head

46% acc · 73%

80% acc · 19%

Body

50% acc · 3%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

89% acc · 24%

By position

52% acc · 57%

Distance

48% acc · 76%

80% acc · 38%

Clinch

73% acc · 24%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chas Skelly rounds

even

Jim Alers rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:38

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 2Chas Skelly edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:45

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 68

Sig Strikes

33 / 63

61.5%

Sig Str %

51.5%

54 / 80

Total Strikes

41 / 76

0 / 5

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:23

Ctrl Time

1:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jim Alers	14 / 29	18 / 38	1 / 1	1
1	Chas Skelly	20 / 32	32 / 44	0 / 1	0
2	Jim Alers	19 / 34	23 / 38	0 / 1	0
2	Chas Skelly	22 / 36	22 / 36	0 / 4	0

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Jim Alers

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3