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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jason Knight won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1495

Elo1369

Chas SkellyvsJason KnightUFC Prediction Result

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, May 13, 2017Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jason Knight won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:39

Style matchupChas Skelly: Submission grapplervsJason Knight: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Chas Skelly wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Jason Knight wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chas Skelly at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jason Knight enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Chas Skelly

Red Corner

Jason Knight

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1495

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chas SkellyW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Maximo Blanco · Sep 16

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17

vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18

vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19

KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22

latest

Jason KnightL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Jan 17

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jul 17

vs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 17

vs Makwan Amirkhani · May 18

vs Jordan Rinaldi · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chas SkellyMetricJason Knight

2.01

Strikes / min

2.95

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

49%

Strike defense

51%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

1.31

39%

Takedown defense

47%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chas SkellyJason Knight

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chas Skelly(10 fights)Jason Knight(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +126.6|Blue -126.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chas SkellyTargetJason Knight

By target zone

43% acc · 79%

Head

51% acc · 78%

57% acc · 14%

Body

64% acc · 12%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

75% acc · 10%

By position

46% acc · 97%

Distance

42% acc · 51%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

75% acc · 10%

0% acc

Ground

79% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chas Skelly rounds

even

Jason Knight rounds

Round 1Jason Knight edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:29

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Jason Knight edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:20

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 3Jason Knight edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 63

Sig Strikes

59 / 109

52.7%

Sig Str %

57%

37 / 71

Total Strikes

65 / 116

1 / 6

TDs

2 / 2

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

3:49

Ctrl Time

1:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jason Knight	15 / 27	18 / 31	1 / 1	3
1	Chas Skelly	7 / 24	15 / 32	1 / 2	0
2	Jason Knight	28 / 59	31 / 62	1 / 1	0
2	Chas Skelly	19 / 35	19 / 35	0 / 4	0
3	Jason Knight	16 / 23	16 / 23	0 / 0	0
3	Chas Skelly	3 / 4	3 / 4	0 / 0	0

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Jason Knight

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9