Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
3 Rounds
Charlie Brenneman won · U-DEC R3
Elo1354
Charlie Brenneman
Elo1491
Rick Story

Charlie BrennemanvsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · Sunday, June 26, 2011Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Charlie Brenneman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharlie Brenneman: WrestlervsRick Story: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Charlie Brenneman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at -470 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Charlie Brenneman enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Rick Story has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Charlie Brenneman
Red Corner
VS
Rick Story
Blue Corner
+415
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-470
(82%)
1354
Elo
1491
45
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charlie BrennemanL5 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Erick Silva · Jun 12
L
KOvs Kyle Noke · Sep 12
L
SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Jan 14
L
KOvs Danny Castillo · Apr 14
L
SUBvs Leandro Silva · Nov 14
latest
Rick Story
oldest →
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14
W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14
W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charlie BrennemanMetricRick Story
1.52
Strikes / min
3.80
1.55
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
46%
Strike defense
62%
4.23
TDs / 15 min
2.53
72%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.03Δ 1.66 — meaningful gap+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1570Strikes22.7 vs 44.1Takedowns3.7 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.29Form0.4 vs 1.0
Charlie BrennemanRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Charlie Brenneman(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -136.8|Blue +136.8
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +126.0|Blue -126.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charlie BrennemanTargetRick Story

By target zone

9
39% acc · 82%
Head
9
26% acc · 53%
1
50% acc · 9%
Body
6
75% acc · 35%
1
100% acc · 9%
Leg
2
67% acc · 12%

By position

3
33% acc · 27%
Distance
7
26% acc · 41%
3
30% acc · 27%
Clinch
5
38% acc · 29%
5
71% acc · 45%
Ground
5
83% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Charlie Brenneman rounds
1
even
0
Rick Story rounds
Round 1Charlie Brenneman edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control3:23
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:36Control
Round 2Charlie Brenneman edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns2
Control4:04
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns2
Control2:17
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:56Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
11 / 26
Sig Strikes
17 / 46
33%
Sig Str %
36.3%
70 / 86
Total Strikes
61 / 91
5 / 8
TDs
2 / 4
66.3%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
4
1
Rev
0
9:44
Ctrl Time
2:46

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rick Story7 / 1513 / 212 / 40
1Charlie Brenneman9 / 1351 / 551 / 30
2Rick Story4 / 1317 / 260 / 02
2Charlie Brenneman1 / 718 / 252 / 20
3Rick Story6 / 1831 / 440 / 02
3Charlie Brenneman1 / 61 / 62 / 30

Charlie Brenneman

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16