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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Charlie Brenneman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1351

Charlie BrennemanvsDaniel RobertsUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · Friday, January 20, 2012Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Charlie Brenneman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCharlie Brenneman: WrestlervsDaniel Roberts: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Charlie Brenneman wins(66.9%)

Actual result: Charlie Brenneman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charlie Brenneman at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charlie Brenneman enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Daniel Roberts threatens submissions; Charlie Brenneman has lost 43% of fights by sub.
Charlie Brenneman has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Roberts (53.5%).
Daniel Roberts has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Charlie Brenneman

Red Corner

Daniel Roberts

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1354

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charlie BrennemanL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Erick Silva · Jun 12

KOvs Kyle Noke · Sep 12

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Jan 14

KOvs Danny Castillo · Apr 14

SUBvs Leandro Silva · Nov 14

latest

Daniel RobertsL2 streak

oldest →

vs Forrest Petz · Jul 10

SUBvs Mike Guymon · Oct 10

SUBvs Greg Soto · Jan 11

vs Claude Patrick · Apr 11

vs Rich Attonito · Jun 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charlie BrennemanMetricDaniel Roberts

1.52

Strikes / min

0.73

1.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.27

46%

Strike defense

46%

4.23

TDs / 15 min

2.46

72%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap-1.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charlie BrennemanDaniel Roberts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charlie Brenneman(10 fights)Daniel Roberts(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.5|Blue -2.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -97.0|Blue +97.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charlie BrennemanTargetDaniel Roberts

By target zone

80% acc · 33%

Head

20% acc · 67%

100% acc · 54%

Body

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

80% acc · 17%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

95% acc · 79%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charlie Brenneman rounds

even

Daniel Roberts rounds

Round 1Charlie Brenneman edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control4:48

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Charlie Brenneman edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control3:50

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Charlie Brenneman edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control4:32

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 26

Sig Strikes

3 / 11

91.7%

Sig Str %

28%

156 / 177

Total Strikes

54 / 63

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

13:10

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Roberts	1 / 6	18 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Charlie Brenneman	5 / 6	56 / 64	1 / 2	0
2	Daniel Roberts	2 / 5	27 / 31	0 / 0	2
2	Charlie Brenneman	6 / 6	46 / 49	0 / 2	0
3	Daniel Roberts	0 / 0	9 / 9	0 / 1	1
3	Charlie Brenneman	13 / 14	54 / 64	1 / 1	0

Charlie Brenneman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Daniel Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7