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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Charlie Brenneman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1351

Charlie BrennemanvsAmilcar AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · Saturday, January 22, 2011Killeen, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Charlie Brenneman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Charlie Brenneman wins(75.2%)

Actual result: Charlie Brenneman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Charlie Brenneman at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charlie Brenneman enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Charlie Brenneman has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Charlie Brenneman has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Amilcar Alves (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Charlie Brenneman

Red Corner

Amilcar Alves

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1354

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Charlie BrennemanL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Erick Silva · Jun 12

KOvs Kyle Noke · Sep 12

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Jan 14

KOvs Danny Castillo · Apr 14

SUBvs Leandro Silva · Nov 14

latest

Amilcar Alves

oldest →

SUBvs Mike Pierce · Aug 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Charlie BrennemanMetricAmilcar Alves

1.52

Strikes / min

0.50

1.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.02

46%

Strike defense

30%

4.23

TDs / 15 min

0.00

72%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.03Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap-1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Charlie BrennemanAmilcar Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Charlie Brenneman(10 fights)Amilcar Alves(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Charlie BrennemanTargetAmilcar Alves

By target zone

40% acc · 23%

Head

42% acc · 50%

100% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 40%

100% acc · 54%

Leg

25% acc · 10%

By position

22% acc · 8%

Distance

43% acc · 60%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 30%

92% acc · 88%

Ground

33% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Charlie Brenneman rounds

even

Amilcar Alves rounds

Round 1Charlie Brenneman edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control4:29

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Charlie Brenneman edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:48

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Charlie Brenneman edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:59

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 35

Sig Strikes

10 / 20

66.3%

Sig Str %

53.3%

114 / 143

Total Strikes

25 / 40

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

36%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

12:16

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Amilcar Alves	2 / 3	9 / 11	0 / 0
1	Charlie Brenneman	17 / 18	56 / 67	1 / 2
2	Amilcar Alves	4 / 8	8 / 14	0 / 1
2	Charlie Brenneman	4 / 8	23 / 31	1 / 4
3	Amilcar Alves	4 / 9	8 / 15	0 / 0
3	Charlie Brenneman	5 / 9	35 / 45	1 / 3

Charlie Brenneman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11

Amilcar Alves

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights2